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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
LM RE sales clinch win vs 2008
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Date:
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10/1/2009 5:10:45 PM
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We just keep on rolling. This is good news, folks.
Looking at the entire Lake Martin waterfront home market, 31 homes were sold in August, which is the best since May 06.
2008 has bitten the dust. 2007 will likely fall after September.
URL: Lake Martin Clinches Victory Over 2008 With Strong August 09
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| Name: |
Toni
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| Subject: |
LM RE sales clinch win vs 2008
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Date:
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10/1/2009 9:10:48 PM
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As usual, John, your information is right on... The higher priced ($1M plus) properties have been slow to move - but we're seeing quite a bit of activity on places priced $300K to $750K. Based on recent inquiries, buyers are still shopping - and prices are holding steady.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
LM RE sales clinch win vs 2008
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Date:
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10/1/2009 9:44:10 PM
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I don't want to throw cold water on that because that is good news but don't you think there is a shadow market out there of folks that gave up and are waiting for a better market where prices are rising?
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
Shadow Market?
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Date:
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10/2/2009 10:28:56 AM
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I don't know about that. I think that is over thinking it a bit. Why would any rational buyer wait until prices are RISING to make the decision to buy? I agree that rational buyers wait until they perceive that prices have quit falling. But remember that RE is not like buying a stock, where price is the only consideration.
I suppose in any market (guns, butter, LM RE, widgets) there are always more willing buyers at lower prices, thus the slope of the demand curve. So yes, there are many buyers that will continue to wait until they can safely jump back on the bandwagon. And, buyers are not always rational. Quite frankly, if you study price trends in anything you see that more buyer momentum happens on upswings in price.
My point is this: study the numbers. We are in a unique market transition time where sides (# of sales) are on an upswing but prices are flat. History and math shows us that when these conditions exist, price raises are next, and we will swing into another seller's market. Fact. The # of sales is the LEADING indicator. My question to buyers is, will you wait until prices rise again until you buy?
Now, I am not saying prices are about to start rising. Maybe 2010 sales will be lower then 2009. I don't know. But one thing is for sure - we have beaten 2008. We can't start back uphill until we beat the prior year. And it's over with. Scoreboard. Barring a major catastrophe, we will beat (have already beaten) 2007.
And another question - what other markets in this great nation of ours are seeing price increases? You can count them on your hand. Most places are crowing if their sales have stopped DECREASING - much less an increase that we have seen.
Again, I am not saying that we are starting another seller's market. No way. But the facts have proven - 2008 was a bottom and we are headed back "up" (good or bad, depending on your perspective). Maybe 2010 will dip back down. Who knows. But for right now, let's bury 2008 and look forward, and count our blessings. Montgomery, AL, for example, is still bleeding. Their August numbers were down versus prior year, and mark the 28th month - yes 28th, straight loss vs. prior year. We have beaten prior year 11 of last 12, and our cumulative numbers are way bigger than the last calendar year.
URL: Montgomery Hit Hard By Housing Slump
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Shadow Market?
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Date:
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10/2/2009 11:15:10 AM
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Maybe I should have said a Shadow Supply. I sense that when prices start to rise again there will be a lot of sellers come out into the sunshine.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
One more thought
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Date:
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10/2/2009 11:18:25 AM
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Yes I can imagine more buyers coming out once prices have begun to rise. As long as the perception lingers that prices haven't bottomed yet they will wait. But when they start rising they will start buying. Kinda like home sales always pick up when interest rates start to rise....
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
Shadow supply
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Date:
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10/2/2009 5:16:34 PM
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Yes there are folks waiting to sell when things turn towards a seller's market. i have talked to them.
But, for what it is worth, I talked to an = if not greater number during 06 and even 07 who were trying to time the absolute top of the market. They wanted to hold for "just one more year" of appreciation even though I was telling them the tide was turning. So you had people that missed out on selling entirely because they held out for too long. That is what I am telling buyers now. Better to buy at 99% of the low than to miss it entirely and wait until everyone knows it's back up. When everyone knows, it's no longer a secret, and prices have adjusted accordingly.
So my anecdotal evidence says that the market is balanced by these two groups, as well as their counterparts in the demand curve.
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