Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Q2 GDP Crushes Expectations and Doomsayers Date:   7/30/2025 10:44:47 AM (updated 7/30/2025 10:50:39 AM)

So we had a minor contraction in the Q1 GDP (caused mostly by front loading of imports in anticipation of tariffs) and the "experts" told us Trump was the Antichrist and our economy was headed for a depression....then Q2 happened.  Better than expected.  Exceeded analysts expectations.  Ya know....all the same crap we hear every time making me wonder how the experts are always wrong.

So Q2 GDP was at a very robust 3% yearly pace.  Consumer spending was up, imports were down and investment/exports were also down but not enough to have a big impact.  So far Trump appears to be winning the tariff wars, the stock market as of right now is doing well and consumers are more optimistic and are spending.  Biggest drop came in fixed investments because no major data centers were counted in Q2, which is a very curious thing given the demand from AI.  Given the ups and downs from imports in Q1/Q2 the real YOY GDP will probably be in the 2% range.  

So yet another prognostication of doom has been undone by reality.  Imagine what will happen to the economy when the Fed finally starts to drop rates.  Powell must be furious with the American people that we are plowing along despite his TDS-fueled damage to our economy.  And once they do drop rates, between the tariff revenue, the increased revenue from American wages going up and lower borrowing costs for the Feds we should see some reduction in the rate of debt growth.....no, surpluses will not happen because we still have a spending problem due mostly to out of control entitlement programs.  The bigger question is how the Fed will respond to the inflation numbers, which were mixed and the strong job growth as evidenced by the ADP job numbers of over $100K.