Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   The original Imperial College study craters Date:   3/26/2020 3:18:48 PM

Turns out the much ballyhooed and much used study projecting 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2M in the U.S. is now admitting his numbers were wildly wrong.  He is now projecting 20,000 deaths in the UK.  Says he was faulty in his assumptions and now says all will be well.  Plenty of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators.  Also said that most of the deaths were people that likely would have died due to other preexisting conditions within the next year.  Let's hope his model likewise craters for his U.S. prediction.

Either way, it is a cautionary tale that we should be careful about setting public policy based on modeling early on in a pandemic.  In fact, we should take all models with a grain of salt because they can be easily manipulated to fit the author's preconceived notions or agenda and are meant to influence public policy as opposed to inform it.  And as is always the case, the lie gets around the world before the truth even gets its shoes on.