Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   It had to happen Date:   4/17/2020 10:20:33 AM

The reality is that the primary driver for the measures were models that have turned out to be wildly wrong and way overestimated cases and deaths.  And do not believe those that are saying the difference is the social distancing and shelter in place.  Less than 3 weeks ago and assuming social distancing and the shutdowns the models were projecting between 120,000 to 240,000 deaths.  As the data came in and the models were recalibrated it has dropped to 60,000 and may got lower.  And the mortality rate likewise continues to drop.  And there is no statistical difference in the outcome between states that instituted strict measures and those that didn't.  I suspect at the end of this studies will determine that they were only minimally to moderately helpful.  

But all DC can do is provide guidance.  It is up to each governor and each mayor to decide what they will do.  And we won't know for some time who underreacted, overreacted or did it about right.  Much depends on the locale and I could certainly understand if places like NY and NJ extend theirs for a while longer.  I can also understand those that don't.  And bear in mind, as of today only 0.21% of the population has been confirmed to have the virus.  That means the remaining 99.79% of us don't, unlike the ordinary flu where as many as 60 million get it every year.  And I still don't personally know anyone that has it.