Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Georgia moving in the right direction Date:   4/21/2020 8:31:31 AM

Gov Kemp has indicated some reasonable relaxation coming the end of this week.  As for the Stanford study, I have long believed that the mortality rate was wildly overstated.  They simply had no idea how long the Wuhan virus has been here nor how many people were infected because so many have zero symptoms.  Recent studies based on antibody tests indicate a 50 to 80 times higher number of people infected than being reported.  That's from one and a half to almost two orders of magnitude off.  That alone immediately drops the Wuhan virus mortality to close to the same as the flu.

While that's good news the other issue is how contagious the virus is, whether people are contagious while asymptomatic and how many people end up in the hospital.  That will be more clear over the next few months but for sure all the models and prognostications of doom truned out to be wildly wrong.  Even those that took into account the shelter in place and other measures.

And of course the next big question is whether the Wuhan virus will be like SARS and disappear or the Spanish Flu and come back in the fall in some mutated and more deadly form.  No one knows for sure and while we need to hope for the best we need to plan for the worst and get some effective treatment regimens in place and widely available if it does come back because we can be pretty sure there will be no vaccine before the fall.