Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   You do not understand models Date:   4/29/2020 12:55:32 PM

Your response actually proves my point.  It's not just the data.  It's how the model is constructed mathematically.  And it is all the assumptions that go into the models because of the absence of data for every model variable. You really don't understand models if you think that all that matters is the data.  Data is historical by its every nature.  If you have to repair a model with new data because the predictive output doesn't match what actually happened then the model is useless.

As for saying the models are wrong is a weak argument, that is a logical fallacy.  Saying something that is objectively true is not argument...it is fact.  Hound, the models were wrong.  You have the right to your own opinion but not to the facts.  And wrong is a fact.  If they were right we would have already had over 1 million people dead from the virus.  We haven't even hit 60K and are on the downward side of the curve.