Name:   MAJ USA RET - Subject:   What will become of the Middle East? Date:   2/21/2011 6:07:01 PM

“…those engaging in the civil unrest are pawns in behind-the-scenes power struggles. In all, the assumed impenetrability of the internal security apparatus and the loyalties and intentions of the army remain decisive factors in determining the direction of the unrest.”  - STRATFOR

I think what Stratfor is saying here, is that the culture of the military will be te deciding factor. 

The military has been in charge in Egypt since Gamul Abdul Nasser.  The risk that Mubarak might name a successor who is not risen from the military was intolerable.  The civil unrest, if not instigated by the military, was at least abetted by it.

So it will proceed with the rest… secular versus Islamic.  However falls the military, so shall we be expecting the tenor of the outcome.  Deposed dictators will flee.  If their military preserves their throne, then the military will own them when they return.  

Iran, on the other hand, is a different scenario.  The unrest is AGAINST the fundamentalist government.  And, Iranian are much better educated and savy about organization via electronic means.

The House of Saud: Safe… for now.

Stratfor reference: 

http://www.stratfor.com/memberships/184957/analysis/20110217-unrest-middle-east-special-report