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Name:
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copperline
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Subject:
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I won't mention the dismal jobs report
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Date:
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4/6/2012 1:51:33 PM
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Always more sides to a complicated coin…..
8.2% Unemployment: An Exceedingly
'Meh' Jobs Report for March
By Derek Thompson / Atlantic.com
Apr 6 2012, 9:50 AM ET
After three straight months of wicked job growth, March disappointed with
120,000 new workers. But the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.2%, the lowest
rate since the first month of Obama's presidency.
The economic Twitter world, which lately has thrilled to the employment
surveys released at 8:30 AM every first Friday of the month, spent this Good
Friday morning tweeting out variations on a theme of "huh." The
Washington Post's Neil irwin's might just have won the morning with some
basic meta-analysis: "Overall take on jobs report: Meh." Meh, indeed.
Here are four ways to think about Meh March.
interp 1: Okun's Law strikes back. For the last few weeks, some
economists have puzzled over how the economy could create 200,000+ jobs a month
with only modest GDP growth. According to "Okun's Law," employment
growth and GDP growth like to hold hands. You don't see one get too far ahead
of the other. This jobs report brings the two in line. Perhaps the broadest,
simplest interpretation of today is that the recovery is still real and still
weak, just as we thought before this morning's report.
interp 2: This report is wrong ... ish. These reports are subject to
major revisions. in August 2011, as you might recall, we created zero jobs. At
least, that was the breaking news on the first Friday of September. Two months
later, it turned out that we created 85,000 jobs in August. That's some margin
of error. Eighty-five thousand jobs is exactly the difference between today's
120,000 figure and consensus expectations of a strong 200k month. These numbers
are written in editable pixels,
not in stone.
interp 3: Things are quietly getting worse. After three straight
positive months of job creation, worker participation rate fell surprisingly.
The employment-population rate fell again, too. in other words, even though we
are in a recovery, a shrinking percentage of our country is looking for work or
employed. We want a recovery where the unemployment rate falls thanks to job
creation, not labor force dissipation.
interp 4: Things are quietly getting better. Take the long view.
Average monthly job creation in the last quarter is greater than 200,000.
Average monthly job creation in the last six months is nearly 190,000. That's a
recovery, people. it's still the best 12 months of job growth in the last five
years. The most important sectoral drag on employment, which has been
government losses, is slowing sharply, and manufacturing is still expanding
more than 30,000 jobs a month.
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