Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Some other interesting observations Date:   11/10/2022 3:42:01 PM

A number of issues have come up that are interesting.  One is about redistricting.  Given the new districting done by both GOP and Democrat controlled legislatures it has become increasingly difficult to see big swings in House seats.  Both parties have gotten very sophisticated in analyzing voters and drawing districts to make seats safe for incumbents.  We saw this in GA-6 which made it more Republican and moved some voters to a district that was safe Democrat.  This is happening all over the place and could best be desccribed as the Safe Incumbent Redistricting Process.  But making districts safe for one party or the other precludes big swings.....something I had not considered.

The second is about the Arizona election.  The more I see from that state the more incompetent they look.  Hobbs, the Guv candidate and current SOS is apparently totally incompetent.  But it keeps getting more interesting and I am now of the opinion that they are slow walking the counting process because they know Kari Lake is going to dominate the mail in ballots that were hand delivered on election day.  Whether it is enough to carry Blake Masters as well remains to be seen but it does not seem so at this point unless they go hard for him.  But as of right now I would not be surprised to see her come out on top and her campaign is very confident and we're not hearing much from Hobbs so I suspect they know as well.  Either way, the state is humiliating itself over the inability to manage an election and quickly count votes.

The third is about demographics.  Suburban women again went for Democrats like they did in 2020.  Speculation is abortion was the issue.  Gen Z, especially unmarried women, also went big for Democrats which is no surprise.  Least experienced, most recently indoctrinated and generally look to govt to fill the role of a spouse in terms of security.  Hispanics shifted toward the GOP but not in the numbers expected.  And don't read too much into Florida.  A large portion of the Hispanic vote, particularly in South FL, are cubans.  They know what life is like under socialism and tend toward the GOP.  To assume this will apply to non-Cuban hispanics is probably not wise.  Blacks did what they usually do, vote for Democrats.

The fourth is that unless Masters comes out on top in AZ it will once again come down to GA for control of the Senate.  Pray for those of us in the state as both parties are going to be all in so we will be inundated with political ads, text messages and robo calls.  I again predict a repeat of the last runoff and Warnock will come out on top.  But since it all comes down to turnout anything could happen.