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	Name:	UncleSam -
	Subject:	Mythbuster?
	Date:	1/20/2008 1:23:53 PM

I'm surprised Mythbuster doesn't take these hurricane prediction rants and interject some facts.

Fact: On December 8, 2006, the first first extended-range forecast for the 2007 season was issued, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher).

Fact: Though the official hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30, this year it started on May 9 and ended on December 11; the early start date and late ending date were both because of storms that developed outside of the usual expected dates, which to me is a good indicator of a busier-than-usual hurricane season.

Fact: 2007 was one of four recorded Atlantic seasons that have had more than one category 5 storm (1960, 1961 and 2005 were the others) and the ONLY time two Atlantic hurricanes have ever made landfall at Category 5 strength in the same season.

Fact: Hurricane Humberto became the fastest developing storm on record to be so close to land. It strengthened from a 35 mph tropical depression to a 90 mph hurricane in 14 hours while 15 miles (24 km) off the coast of Texas. Hurricane Humbert was also the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Fact: September had a RECORD TYING 8 storms.

BOTTOM LINE: Go back and look at that prediction again. 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher. The actual numbers: 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 of Category 3 or higher. You said they couldn't have been more wrong; I'd say they were almost spot-on in their predictions.

Of course, the bottom line for most people is "how was I affected, since no one matters but ME?" In that case, WE did not have much of a hurricane season; the same high-pressure system that kept the rain away also kept pushing tropical storm systems to the west. (Just ask a Texan how they felt about the "drought" this summer.) But despite what it looks like, the little weatherman in your TV isn't talking just to you, and the NOAA isn't making predictions based on just you.