Name:   copperline - Subject:   Answer to The Iranian nuclear problem Date:   2/27/2012 12:52:58 PM

Bombing iran

Nobody should welcome the prospect of a nuclear-armed iran. But bombing the place is not the answer

Feb 25th 2012 – The Economist

“A decision to go to war should be based not on one man’s electoral prospects, but on the argument that war is warranted and likely to succeed. iran’s intentions are malign and the consequences of its having a weapon would be grave. Faced by such a regime you should never permanently forswear war. However, the case for war’s success is hard to make. if iran is intent on getting a bomb, an attack would delay but not stop it. indeed, using Western bombs as a tool to prevent nuclear proliferation risks making iran only more determined to build a weapon—and more dangerous when it gets one.”

“That does not mean the world should just let iran get the bomb. The government will soon be starved of revenues, because of an oil embargo. Sanctions are biting, the financial system is increasingly isolated and the currency has plunged in value. Proponents of an attack argue that military humiliation would finish the regime off. But it is as likely to rally iranians around their leaders. Meanwhile, political change is sweeping across the Middle East. The regime in Tehran is divided and it has lost the faith of its people. Eventually, popular resistance will spring up as it did in 2009. A new regime brought about by the iranians themselves is more likely to renounce the bomb than one that has just witnessed an American assault”

“is there a danger that iran will get a nuclear weapon before that happens? Yes, but bombing might only increase the risk. Can you stop iran from getting a bomb if it is determined to have one? Not indefinitely, and bombing it might make it all the more desperate. Short of occupation, the world cannot eliminate iran’s capacity to gain the bomb. it can only change its will to possess one. Just now that is more likely to come about through sanctions and diplomacy than war.”