Off-Topic: Economic recovery started?

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	Name:	MartiniMan -
	Subject:	Economic recovery started?
	Date:	10/30/2009 10:55:08 AM

Last quarter we saw growth in GDP equal to an annual rate of 3.5%. Let's hope its sustainable. Here are the risks:

1. Growing unemployment will stall the recovery. Employment levels always lag the recovery but this time there is concern that many of the lost jobs will never return which means people will have to find other lines of work. Also, there is a lot of capacity in the system with part-time employees that will go to full-time before hiring.

2. Pending tax increases being a drag on the economy. With the tax cuts of 2002 set to expire every single tax bracket will go up. This will remove a lot of money from the economy. Also, the various bills floating around Congress to take over the health care system all include immediate tax increases (even though benefits don't kick in until after the 2012 election).

3. Another terrorist attack involving WMD. This is an ever-present threat.

4. Fears of inflation. With the four-fold increase in the deficit and the lackluster debt sales the government may be forced to simply print money. This will trigger inflation.

5. Interest rate hikes. The Fed is still focused on controlling inflation and if they see it heating up they will likely increase interest rates. This could have a dampening effect on the economy.

I am sure there are many others but these are at the top of my list. Let's hope this recovery holds as its been a bad one. The sooner it is over the sooner we get to job growth.

Other messages in this thread:

View Entire Thread

Economic recovery started? - MartiniMan - 10/30/2009 10:55:08 AM

Economic recovery started? - water_watcher - 10/30/2009 11:31:42 AM

Economic recovery started? - Yankee06 - 10/30/2009 6:37:13 PM

Economic recovery started? - MAJ USA RET - 10/31/2009 9:35:28 AM

Add Two More Concerns>> - Mack - 10/31/2009 6:44:52 PM

Add More Concerns>> - MAJ USA RET - 10/31/2009 10:29:49 PM

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