Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Watching the current Trump mania Date:   8/24/2015 9:48:03 AM

I have been watching and reading a lot about Donald Trump a lot lately......not hard to do given them media obsession....and have a few observations.  First of all, I do not think he is a conservative.  For all his bluster and hitting on all these hot button issues with conservatives, if you look at his actual record he is no conservative on either fiscal or social issues.  I don't care what he is saying on the stump or in debates.  He is pandering to the GOP primary voter and doesn't believe any of it.  

Second, his comments and initial plan on immigration, while appealing to many who are concerned about this issue, are not realistic or workable.  Like many people I would like to see our borders made secure, our current immigration laws enforced and some workable plan to deal with the 10 to 15 million illegals in the country.  But anyone who thinks his plan to deport them and get Mexico to pay for the wall is going to happen even if he is elected is being wildly optimistic.  Trump does not possess some secret sauce that will get the government to suddenly do their jobs and to think otherwise is to ignore 200 plus years of historical reality.

Third, I think his current popularlity drives to conservative angst with the current political class that says one thing (i.e., limited government, reigning in an out of control federal government, etc.) and then does nothing or worse, participates in the further erosion of our rights and increases the size and scope of government.  The belief that the GOP "establishment" has abandoned us and is really Democrat lite is very real and Trump is wisely tapping into that anger.  But he is not the solution to this issue and is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Fourth, the real question is whether he can coelesce enough support to overcome another strong contender.  Looking at the current polling data he reminds me a lot of Ron Paul.  He has very strong numbers with his fans (~20% of the GOP base) but is strongly opposed by a majority who would prefer someone else.  Put another way, he is not the second or third choice of many primary voters.  That will have to change or he will not get the nomination.  As for me, he is near the bottom of my list with Jeb Bush, Rick Perry and some others.

Final thought, if he doesn't get the nomination will he go third party and hand the presidency to the Dems?  In my opinion, his refusal to eschew a third party run should be enough to eliminate him from contention.  I know how appealing an anti-establishment candidate is and I understand that people like his willingness to let fly with whatever is on his mind.  But is this really the kind of candidate we want representing the GOP?  It seems to me that Carly Fiorina or Ben Carson, despite their various and sundry flaws, are much more substantive and considerate representatives of the desire for a non-politician.  Disclaimer:  I like Ben Carson but do not think he is right for this job.  As for Carly Fiorina, I continue to watch and listen to her and think she has some appeal.