Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Were the U.S. measures effective? Date:   4/28/2020 9:06:15 AM (updated 4/28/2020 9:19:53 AM)

Recall that we implemented very stringent measures in the U.S. as a result of faulty models that indicated we would overwhelm our hospital system.  We now know how dreadfully wrong these models were but the question for today is whether the measures we took were the reason for the shape and duration of the bell curve.  One way to do this is to compare it to another country that did not implement the extreme measures and simply followed reasonable precautions.  One such example is Sweden.  Now before you get all wrapped up in the actual numbers, they do not matter.  What matters is when the deaths began, when they peaked and the general shape of the curve.  So see below for a side by side comparison of the U.S. and Sweden daily death bell curve.  From my analysis it is obvious that the shapes are very similar and that there is a strong correlation in deaths between extreme, economic crushing measures and more reasonable and realistic ones.  This clearly should not be the case if the measures are the reason for what happened.